Women are no longer willing to prop up the global economy raising children for free. The result is a global population CRASH

May 27, 2021

A global crash in children being born which is set to have a “jaw-dropping” impact on societies, say researchers.

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

Put another way, that means there will be more funerals than births.

Twenty three nations – including Spain and Japan – are expected to see their populations halve by 2100. Even populous countries such as India and China are facing declines in fertility. 183 out of 195 countries are facing a fertility rate below the replacement level.

As a result, the researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.

The number of over 80-year-olds will soar from 141 million in 2017 to 866 million in 2100.

It is a very big deal. It will become necessary to reorganise societies, say researchers.

Why are women having fewer and fewer children?

In many ways, falling fertility rates are a success story. Education, work, as well as greater access to contraception, is leading to women choosing to have fewer children.

Women, who have long propped up the global economy by undertaking unpaid work raising children, are withdrawing their free labour. With no one else willing to do that unpaid work, the result is population decline with a series of cascading economic consequences.

One such consequence is migration. We will go from the period where it’s a choice to open borders, or not, to frank competition for migrants, as there won’t be enough, say experts.

An exception to global poverty decline is  Sub-Saharan  Africa. Nigeria, for example, will become the world’s second biggest country, with a population of 791 million by 2100.

The distribution of working-age populations will be crucial to whether humanity prospers or withers.

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About the author

My name is Andy Pemberton. I am an expert in data visualization. I guide global clients such as Lombard Odier, the European Commission and Cisco on the best way to use data visualization and then produce it for them: reports, infographics and motion graphics. If you need your data visualized contact me at andy@furthr.co.uk or call 07963 020 103

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“Exponential decay” explains the UK’s fast recovery from pandemic

May 21, 2021

In the UK the end of the pandemic seems to be drawing near.

But reports about new variants – the Indian variant and the South African variant in particular – give the impression that the pandemic and its lockdowns could resume any moment. But is this realistic?

Setting aside the question of vaccine efficacy on new variants for an instant, there is another reason  to be optimistic about the speed with which we will exit the pandemic. Namely: exponential dynamics

The exponential dynamics that lead to wild swings in case numbers when cases are high lead to far less dramatic swings when cases are low.

And as more and more people are vaccinated, the swings themselves will also shrink, since fewer people are susceptible to infection.

The term for this is “exponential decay.” Exponential growth means case numbers can double in just a few days. Exponential decay is its opposite. Exponential decay means case numbers can halve in the same amount of time.

Every vaccination helps keep us in the realm of exponential decay.

We can already see what the end of the pandemic looks like: A steep drop in cases followed by a longer period of low numbers of cases, though cases will rise again if people ease up on precautions too soon.

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The boom is here – but not for everyone

May 21, 2021

This economic recovery is weird.

In a normal recession spending on housing plunges.

In 2020, however, with many people stuck at home, folks are actually splurging  on home improvements.

In the US, Lumber producers didn’t see it coming and scaled back, leaving them without enough capacity to meet demand. So the price of two-by-fours has gone through the  now unaffordable roof.

Meanwhile, many employers are complaining that they can’t find enough workers.

What they actually mean is they can’t find enough workers for what they want to pay them.

Usually, employers in a depressed economy get used to being able to fill vacancies easily.

When the economy improves hiring gets a bit harder. So they have to attract workers by offering higher wages. And employers experience that as a labour shortage.

But that’s how the economy is supposed to work!

Employers competing for workers by raising wages isn’t a problem, it’s a good thing!

A recent report showed that Americans’ are currently spending on durable goods — cars and furniture and other goods meant to last a long time . In fact sales rose a stunning 41.4 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.

Residential investment was 14.4 percent above its pre-pandemic trend, representing $90 billion a year in extra activity.

Meanwhile. spending on transportation services remains 23 percent below its pre-pandemic trend, recreation services 31 percent, and restaurants and hotels 19 percent.

Consumer spending on gasoline and other energy goods is down 11 percent from its pre-pandemic trend line. And business spending on structures is down 19 percent.

The economy rarely looks the same after a wrenching event as it did before. But what is striking about this crisis is the scale and speed of the economy’s rewiring.

The boom is here – but not for everyone..

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Is Spotify’s new revenue idea payola or just pointless?

December 4, 2020

Cash, pushed into the palm of a disc jockey or stuffed in an LP sleeve was once a great way to make sure your new acts  got played on the radio.

The technical term for this illegal activity that dates back to the nineteenth century is payola.

A lawful form of payola is now seeping into the digital age courtesy of Spotify’s algorithms.

Spotify’s music streaming service is fast-growing but chronically lossmaking. So the platform is constantly thinking up new ways to eke out better terms with big music labels that supply the content in return for a set share of Spotify’s revenues.

320m users might not like it

Under the “discovery mode” unveiled this month, labels can now promote tracks in the Spotify algorithm, which creates personalised radio feeds or autoplay for its 320m monthly users.

In return for higher streaming volumes, participating lables will receive reduced royalties when the song is played.  Because there is no direct payment, judges see it as a perfectly legal commercial arrangement.

But does it still qualify as payola?

Listeners — around 144m of whom pay for a premium, ad-free service — will be unaware of the specific commercial deal that tipped the balance towards a particular song reaching their ears.

For a music service that relies on subscriber trust, Spotify seem to be playing with fire.

But whatever listeners think, it may not generate much revenue for Spotify anyway.

A hit at someone else’s expense

Insiders have pointed out that if everyone pays to promote their artists, no one will get incremental revenue from it, because the pie — based on subscription income — stays the same. The labels will realise it amounts to paying to take money from one another.

Or put another way, within the streaming economy hits may only come at another artist or label’s expense.

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