The internet is AWESOME but it’s screwing us royally

I love reading the Ad Contrarian. He’s hilarious.

This is one of his most pithy statements:

“As an advertising medium, the web is like communism. It’s never very good right now, but it’s always going to be great some day.”

I kind of agree. As an engine of incredible efficiency, the web is awesome.

But, it’s also getting harder to disguise the fact that it is screwing most of us royally.

Economically speaking, if you are a member of the 1% or a coder, the internet has been a real boon to your bottom line.

For the rest of us, not so much.

The internet is not growing the economy, it’s eating it.

Technologies of the past created jobs, explains today’s Harvard Business Review. The internal combustion engine, for example, created the automative industry and led Henry Ford to double the pay of assembly line workers to $5 a day.

Ford famously reasoned that if he paid his workers more, they could buy one of his cars.

The automotive industry also created a large demand for other products. It needed steel, coal, glass, oil fields, bridges.

It created lots of jobs.

Cars also created suburbia, shopping centres and more well paid workers who bought clothes and appliances and holidays – creating still more jobs. It was a virtuous circle.

So far the internet has been very good at killing jobs, not creating them.

Amazon’s efficient distribution system can replace retail stores and their employees. Their warehouses use robots instead of workers.

We need less retail space, along with the people who build and maintain them.

Yet while the internet has made shopping more efficient it has had no effect on per capita sales.

While US retail sales have increased 0.6% a year for the last ten years, employment in retail and wholesale has dropped from about 21.2 million in 2000 to 19.9 million in 2010.

At the same time, the internet has allowed companies to create vast profits with few employees.

In 2013, Amazon ran at a $74 billion revenue rate and had around 110,000 employees or a little over $670,000 in sales per employee.

But no matter! New technologies will create new opportunities that will offset these effects of displacement. Won’t they?

Well… the number of new cars purchased by people 18 to 34 years old has fallen in the US by almost 30%. This group are spending their money on smartphones and bandwidth instead.

So it follows that if we want to offset the effects of the most powerful efficiency engine the world has ever known, then we will need to be smart.

Infrastructure investments that match needs like higher bandwidth connections and slick public transportation that will take the place of cars is a great start.

What else?

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Here’s a GREAT idea. Let’s NOT have a brainstorming session

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I am reading a very enjoyable book called The Sisters Brothers by Patrick deWitt right now. It’s a darkly comic western set along the Pacific Coast in 1851. It’s creative, inventive and great fun.

And it was written by only one person. This guy.

No one ever heard of a book – a good book – being written by a committee. The very idea! Sure, there are acknowledgements in the front of every great tome, but that’s not the same.

Good ideas don’t come from committees. That used to be a prejudice. Now it’s a scientific fact.

meta-analytic review of over 800 teams shows that individuals are more likely to generate a higher number of original ideas when they DON’T interact with others. Brainstorming actually harms productivity – especially in large teams.

What went wrong?

Brainstorming was invented by 50s ad guy Alex Osborn. It works on four basic principles. You get together with your co-workers and then:

1. Generate lots of ideas;

2. Prioritize unusual or original ones;

3. Combine and refine those ideas;

4. Don’t criticise them until later.

The idea is that by getting together with others, people try harder and quantity eventually leads to quality ideas.

Osborn said it would lead to a boost in performance by 50%, compared with people working on their own.

WRONG!

According to Harvard Business Review there are four reasons why that is not the case:

1. Social loafing: in reality people don’t try harder, they try less hard.

2. Social anxiety: People worry about how their ideas will be treated.

3. Regression to the mean: a process of downward adjustment means the most talented members of a team end up matching the peformance of their less talented peers.

4. Production blocking: people can only express one idea at one time. The number of ideas per person actually declines as the size of the group gets bigger.

So, given the evidence that it does not work, why do it?

Stakeholder buy-in, compadre.

It’s a management placebo, designed to make employees feel good.

So, now we’ve had our brainstorming meeting and generated second rate ideas, we are all willing to put them into practice.

Yay.

Now, back to your desk.

 

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Three charts confirm Venezuela is the world’s worst economy right now

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Venezuela’s economy is the most sickly in the world. From the value of its currency (sinking), to its inflation (scorching) and GDP (shrinking), Venezuela ranks at or near the bottom of just about every important financial indicator out there, performing worse even than Argentina, Greece, or Ukraine.

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Only around 10% of the dollar trade takes place on the exchange, according to Moody’s. Three-quarters of dollars are still traded by the government at the laughably overvalued rates of around 6 and 12 bolívares to the dollar.

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Consumer prices are now rising by nearly 70% per year, the highest rate in the world.

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Oil accounts for some 95% of export earnings.  As a result of the oil price crash, (and other factors)  the government in Caracas now faces a financing gap of more than $30 billion both this year and next. The IMF recently slashed its forecast for economic growth in the country this year, to a 7% decline in GDP on top of an estimated 4% fall last year.

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Welcome aboard, James Lumley!

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James Lumley (left, with notepad)  joins Furthr today. James has been a journalist and writer for 20 years and has been published in newspapers and magazines across the globe.

He spent a decade at Bloomberg News reporting on, amongst other things, financial crime, regulation and legal matters. He spent three years as a writer at FTSE 100 insurer Aviva Plc working on the annual report, providing copy for senior executives, and developing internal and external comms material.

James has joined Furthr to run our internal communications service. He’ll be helping Furthr’s large business clients communicate clearly.

He is also writing a book on Romano-British history.

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