With new cases of  COVID-19 now flattening, transmission rates (R) are at 1 or below in the UK. This could be the moment to begin loosening suppression measures. But the question is when to start.

The UK cabinet is split on the decision, reports the FT.

The split centres on how low the reproduction rate of the virus — known as its R number — should be before the lockdown starts to be unwound. Government officials confirm that Mr Gove and Mr Sunak believe that if the R number is sustainably below 1 — where the number of new infections is no longer rising — then restrictions can begin to be lifted.

The Sunday Times, which first reported the tensions, quoted Mr Gove as telling colleagues that “we need to run this hot”, so that new virus cases — and deaths — would continue but within the capacity of the NHS to cope.

But Mr Hancock wants the R number close to zero before beginning to reopen the economy, arguing that Britain cannot afford another damaging peak.

The government’s current lack of testing capacity is a key issue. Although Mr Gove said on Sunday that the government was “on course to be able to test 100,000 a day by the end of the month” it currently has capacity for only 38,000.

Testing and tracing of contacts are a key part of any exit strategy.

One government adviser said Mr Johnson had a huge decision to make. “Do you take it to zero or do you start to end the lockdown? It’s the biggest policy issue facing the country.”

When it does come time to remove restrictions. a paper by UCL could point the way. It suggests a traffic light system to stagger the lifting of restrictions.:

Red (slight easing of restrictions but with strict caution while risk is still high), Amber (conditions improve but we still need to be careful) and Green (when medical experts give the all clear). The authors suggest lockdown could be eased from early May, with the final stages in June 13.

Traffic light system for a lockdown exit strategy:

Red phase (May 1)

• Deliberately called red to ensure people think before they act
• Visiting friends and family allowed, but no visits to grandparents
• More – but not all – types of shops could open and they would have to exercise strict social distancing, as most supermarkets do now.
• Travel should still be discouraged and many international flights banned.

Amber phase (May 22)

• Private car travel no longer limited
• In order to minimise pressure on public transport, and crowds, there would have to be attempts to vary the rush-hour, with different opening and closing times.
• Wearing masks and disposable gloves could be compulsory when using public transport.
• Restaurants could reopen but with strict seating demarcations, to uphold social distancing.
• Home working advised for those that can.

Green phase (June 13)

• Public fully released from lockdown if health experts allowed it
• Sporting events or mass gatherings could take place, and places of worship reopen.
• International travel could return to normal.

As we pass the peak of new cases of COViD19 in the UK, thoughts trun to when – and how – the lockdown can be lifted.

The key to any ordered resumption to normal life is testing.

The New York Times writes this morning:

“Have we slowed the spread of the coronavirus? Are we past the peak? When can we safely ease restrictions? How can we head off a second wave of infections? The answers all depend on swift, accurate, widespread and readily available testing, both for active infections and for the antibodies they leave behind. Without it, officials trying to grapple with the pandemic are flying blind.”

Furthr’s research suggests that the UK is nowhere near the level of testing promised by the government.The government memorably promised 100,00 tests a day by the end of April, which is under two weeks away.

Current rates are under 10,0000 tests a day and not rising anytime soon (see trend-line on chart). That means the government has already missed its interim target of 25,000 test a day by mid-April.

Any organised plan to relax restrictions would depend on thorough testing.

In the US business executives told President Trump on a conference call that much wider testing is needed before reopening the economy. They said they were worried about huge lawsuits if workers were called back too soon and became infected on the job.

Data from John Hopkins suggest the UK may have hit a peak of new cases of COVID-19 last week, on Thursday April 10.

If that is true – and it takes 12 consecutive days of a downward trend to prove we are past the worst point – then thoughts will turn to act three in this tragedy: how the UK gradually starts to lift restrictions.

With that in mind, Furthr are working on a heat map of the UK showing where most of the COVID-19 cases are. (See above) We are also adding a timeline to show how the disease is progressing.

The government will relax lockdown restrictions according to age and geography, Neil Ferguson revealed this morning on the BBC.

What does that look like?

Here at Furthr industries we have run our slide rule over the UK’s new cases and, based on the idea that we are tracking to Italy, predict lockdown measures could start to be released May 23rd.  (It is worth noting that the city of Wuhan, where the COVID-19 outbreak began, lifted its lockdown seven weeks from its peak of new cases.)

Next we can take a look at how ages are affected by COVID-19 and see clearly which age groups would be released first. 

Finally we can look at  the geographic spread of cases across the UK.

What have we learned? If you are a twelve year old from Bath, it is likely restrictions on your movement will be lifted first. Good news for my twin daughters I guess.

How great is this? The Great Wave off Kanagawa by the Japanese ukiyo-e artist Hokusai, set to the world’s Corvid-19 data. Hey, anything to lighten the mood, right?

When will lockdown be over? It’s a question we’d all like the answer to, and of course, we do not know.

However, it is possible to make an estimation.

Researchers at the FT  suggest we in the UK are on a similar trajectory to Italy, who went into lockdown weeks before the UK. Let”s compare the two on a timeline to see what we in the UK have in store.

When will it be over?

Researchers in the US have observed an interesting phenomena.

Google searches for “Why can’t I smell?” appear to be predicting outbreaks of new cases of Corona Virus.

There is strong evidence that anosmia, or loss of smell, is a symptom of Covid-19, with some estimates suggesting that 30-60 percent of people with the disease experience this symptom.

Google searches for the phrase “loss of smell” align closely with the number of positive cases of coronavirus. See below.

Searches for “non sento odori” (“I can’t smell”) spiked in Italy as the coronavirus outbreak spread — but before a report was released identifying the possible symptom.

You can test the hypothesis for yourself.

If you check Google Trends in the UK to see volume of searches for “I can’t smell” it looks like this.

Now take a look at the record of new cases in the UK, collected by John Hopkins University.

Researchers have pointed out that localized Google searches could be a useful marker for the next outbreak of cases of Corona Virus, especially given the five day delay before symptoms emerge.

Here’s the UK Google and new case data combined.