Jargon-watch: lowflation

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Lowflation. All of a sudden this not-so-clever portmanteau is everywhere.

The euro zone slipped into outright deflation in December, with prices falling 0.2% year-on-year. The flurry of economic and market outlooks recently published have been liberally peppered with references to lowflation.

  • Goldman Sachs: “A mechanical reduction in core inflation could have an important impact on monetary policy, especially if other indicators such as wages remain consistent with continued lowflation.”
  • Nomura: “With a global disinflationary shock, we think market participants will be more confident about the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England’s ability to address the lowflation issue.”
  • Morgan Stanley: “In our view, the dominant macro theme in 2015 will be central banks’ battle against lowflation–excessively low inflation that has become pervasive, persistent and pernicious.”

Step aside, Grexit, Lowflation is here.

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What, exactly, is a Grexit? And why is it so scary?

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What is a Grexit and why does Bloomberg Businessweek say we should fear it?

We are three weeks away from the Greek general election, which the left-wing Syriza party, which wants an end to Greece’s punishing austerity regime, seems likely to win, says Megan McArdle at Bloomberg The problem is that the austerity regime is the condition for continued assistance from the euro zone. If Syriza does indeed win and tries to make good on its promises, Greece could be forced to exit the euro.

The mechanics of a Grexit are beyond daunting. The financial system will have to be frozen in order to keep people from immediately withdrawing all their euros and attempting to find them safe harbor abroad.

The contagion may well spread beyond Greece; Ireland seems to have escaped the trap, but Italy, Portugal, and Spain all remain vulnerable.

The ECB will announce its QE programme, designed to steady the Euro economies, on January 22. The Greek election is January 25th. Stay tuned!

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