In the UK the end of the pandemic seems to be drawing near.

But reports about new variants – the Indian variant and the South African variant in particular – give the impression that the pandemic and its lockdowns could resume any moment. But is this realistic?

Setting aside the question of vaccine efficacy on new variants for an instant, there is another reason  to be optimistic about the speed with which we will exit the pandemic. Namely: exponential dynamics

The exponential dynamics that lead to wild swings in case numbers when cases are high lead to far less dramatic swings when cases are low.

And as more and more people are vaccinated, the swings themselves will also shrink, since fewer people are susceptible to infection.

The term for this is “exponential decay.” Exponential growth means case numbers can double in just a few days. Exponential decay is its opposite. Exponential decay means case numbers can halve in the same amount of time.

Every vaccination helps keep us in the realm of exponential decay.

We can already see what the end of the pandemic looks like: A steep drop in cases followed by a longer period of low numbers of cases, though cases will rise again if people ease up on precautions too soon.

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