Some scientists have argued that Covid-19 is not in fact a pandemic.

“Pan” means “everywhere” and until recently Africa has barely been touched by the novel coronavirus.

Instead,  scientists have labelled it a “Syndemic” or synergistic endemic. Covid-19 is an illness that does not act in isolation but rather interacts with other underlying illnesses to cause more damage.

As it is with people, so it is with people-driven businesses.

As I write this, the UK’s pub’s remain closed due to the second Covid19-lockdown.

There is no question that pubs had to be closed. Pubs are hotspot for coronavirus transmission.  Data shows that those who tested positive for Coronavirus were twice as likely to have been at a restaurant than those who tested negative.

Which makes it all the more surprising that Rishi Sunak encouraged everyone to go out to pubs and restaurants with his Eat Out To Help Out scheme over the summer. Pubs benefitted most from this promotion., which certainly led  to the need for a third lockdown.

As restrictions are relaxed in the run up to Christmas, the government has announced pubs will be allowed to re-open – at least until last orders at 10pm. But will pubs survive.

The truth is, the Pub industry already has an underlying illness.  Before Covid-19 began rampaging around the world, the number of pubs in the United Kingdom was already dwindling, down from about 60,000 at the turn of the last century to 47,200 now, according to the British Beer and Pub Association.

The problem is that taxes are high and beer is more available than ever in supermarkets and elsewhere. A smoking ban, imposed in 2007, didn’t help. Nor did the 2008 financial crisis, which helped push the number of UK pubs down from around 50,000 to around 30,000. Analysts predict that Corvid-19 could see pubs decline a further 25% in the near future.

British people love pubs and that’s why they have survived wars and at least one plague, but can they survive the Covid-19 pandemic?

The signs are ominous. Workers in the hospitality sector have had their hours cut more than other workers. When Covid-19 is over, will they have jobs to go back to?

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