Scientists agree this Xmas is a super spreader event. So it is likely more preventable deaths will occur before the vaccine is widely distributed in the UK next year. That means there will likely be more lockdowns and more economic pain before the vaccine arrives.

And although we do not know exactly when the vaccines will arrive and so when the pandemic will come under control, it is a safe bet it will be in 2021.

When that happens many analysts believe the economy will come roaring back.

The consensus predicts 50 per cent growth in earnings per share in Europe and 22 per cent in the US for next year, with the double-digit recovery extending into 2022 as laggards such as the financial and travel industries catch up.

Recovery hopes are underpinned by expected global expansion in global domestic product next year of more than 5 per cent, the best since the 1970s, with central banks too fearful to withdraw support for stricken economies.

After the 2008 financial crisis, recovery was long and slow. But the reason that recovery was slow is the same reason this one could be much faster.

Back in 2008 the bursting of the housing bubble left households with high levels of debt and greatly weekend balance sheets that took years to recover.

But this time things are different. Households entered the slump with much lower levels of debt. And it is likely there is a fair amount of pent up demand. UK citizens who remained employed did a huge amount of saving in quarantine accumulating a lot of liquid assets.

So it’s probable spending will surge once people feel safe to go out and about.

Of course, short term booms are no guarantee of longer term prosperity. That’s a whole other problem.

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