Social media is making politics and collective action more “chaotic”, argues a new book called “Political Turbulence”.

It’s a fascinating theory and it runs like this.

Social media success does not depend on the subject matter—similar posts often fare quite differently—but the personality of potential participants, says The Economist.

Extroverts are more likely to get involved with petitions because they are sensitive to “social information”: seeing that others have already signed and knowing that their endorsement will be seen too.

As a result, if a petition’s initial audience includes enough people with the right mindset, it can quickly take off.

Politics in the age of social media is thus better understood by chaos theory than by conventional social science.

Collective action online is a bit like the weather: small events can have a big impact.

The authors see the emergence of a “chaotic pluralism”, in which mobilisations spring from the bottom up.

One day, say the authors, it will be possible to predict, and perhaps even trigger such social-media surges.

Who has access to data and the resources to sift through it all? Online giants, such as Facebook and Google, and governments.

So social media, like other forms of technology, will cut both ways in politics: they are making societies more democratic, but will also provide those in power with new tools of control.

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