Next week Boris Johnson will lay out plans for re-opening the UK economy, unofficially known as the “unlock.”

The CEO of Sainsbury’s suggested this week one timeline might include a partial unlock in late June with business disrupted until mid-September.

Whatever Johnson comes up with, it’s likely to be difficult. The retail sector has been bruised, aviation is in trouble, schools have been disrupted. While we all hope for a return to business as usual, it is not going to happen.

One of the key challenges will be public transport. A study from China showed that after catching COVID-19 at home, public transport was the next most infectious place for victims of COVID-19.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the new normal it is likely emergency measures forced on many firms will form a part of future thinking and many businesses will wonder if large city offices are worth forcing staff onto crowded public transport. Staff will demand more flexibility from employers,

Initiatives such as France’s attempts to encourage people to cycle to work may also help ease the strain.

But the fact is every day in London the tube transports two million people. Even with changes in working  and commuting habits the Tube is likely to be overwhelmed once restrictions are relaxed.

The London Strategic Coordination Group have war-gamed what will happen if the tube is reopened using current social distancing measures.

London’s transport network, which has 7,000 furloughed staff, would need three to four weeks to prepare, according to the briefing.

Maintaining a 2m (6ft 6in) social distance would reduce the capacity of the London Underground to 15% of normal levels, and buses to 12%.

The briefing also says traffic congestion could increase if people opt to use their cars, and it concludes there would be “no ability to get all children to school by bus”.

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