When the tide goes out, Warren Buffet famously said, you see who’s been swimming naked.

For almost all businesses, Covid19 has seen the tide go so far out it has disappeared over the horizon, exposing not just the bare bums of badly run businesses, but the nether regions of entire sectors who have suddenly found their business models washed out with the sea water.

The question we all face now is, which ones will be able to get back in the swim and which are permanently beached?

Furthr’s top tip for a future of warm water swimming is Airbnb, the most valuable private firm in the US. By next year it seems likely the San Francisco platform will be worth more than the world’s three largest hotel firms combined. Why?

Airbnb has more than 7 million listings worldwide — which is more than Marriott International, Hilton Worldwide, InterContinental Hotels Group, Wyndham Hotel Group, and Hyatt Hotels, combined.

What does that mean? Airbnb is also the only hospitality brand that has the global awareness. A quick look at Google searches shows Airbnb has eclipsed the equity of century-old brands, in one decade, across markets big and small. By 2021, there will be more Airbnb users in the U.S. than people in California. And with no check ins, elevators or public areas, Airbnb may seem a less risky proposition than Covid infected hotels.

Many firms claim to be tech firms that are disruptive, but in fact are not (WeWork). But Airbnb is for real: The firm has a greater share of employees with an engineering background than Amazon or Uber.

The only firms that have the kind of global brand equity plus supply and demand across many nations, allied to an asset-light, high-margin business as Airbnb are credit card companies, who typically trade at 20X multiples of revenue. Airbnb projects revenues of $5-6 billion in 2021, which means a potential valuation of $100-120 billion,

The fact is Covid 19 has rocked an entire industry on its heels. All except one disruptive player: Airbnb. The accelerant of Covid will likely speed Airbnb’s stock price when they eventually go public. The resulting windfall of cash from an IPO would make Airbnb unstoppable.

Posted in: Infographic of the day