Forget Boris Johnson, the UK economy will reopen only when the public is ready
As Boris Johnson readies himself to announce some relaxation of lockdown restrictions this Sunday, it is easy to lulled into a false sense that politicians such as Johnson and even Donald Trump are calling the shots when it comes to lifting restrictions put in place in answer to the Coronavirus pandemic.
However, surveys and data confirm that is not the case. It is the public who will decide when, where and how the lockdown ends, if end it does.
Weekly surveys of thousands of Americans by the Democracy Fund + U.C.L.A. Nationscape Project have found that a majority of Americans wouldn’t eat in a restaurant, go to the movies or return to a shopping mall even if they were now told they could.
What’s more, in many states businesses and private individual had already begun to effectively withdrawing from the economy before Trump ordered a lockdown. In Georgia for example, the economy was winding down before a stay at home order was put in place.
And in a few states, the economy collapsed even though no stay at home orders were ever introduced.
It also seems the case that official pronouncements will have limited power to open the economy back up. In some states that have already begun that process, like Georgia, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Alaska, the same daily economic data shows only meagre signs so far that businesses, workers and consumers have returned to their old routines.
Where does that leave Boris Johnson? He would be advised to attempt to second guess the national mood. If UK citizens are afraid of a public health crisis that still feels out of control, the economy will not reopen, whatever Johnson says.