The Economist has  analysed the performance of more than 2,000 films with a budget of more than $10m, released in America and Canada since 1995, to see which factors help make a movie a hit.

Crunching information from The Numbers, a website that collects data on film releases, and Rotten Tomatoes, an aggregator of critics’ and punters’ reviews, they found that the strongest predictor of absolute box-office receipts is a film’s budget.

Regardless what else happens, a movie can generate an average of 80 cents at American and Canadian cinemas for every dollar a studio promises to spend on it.

But how to make a hit?

First, create a child-friendly superhero film with plenty of action and scope for turning it into a franchise.

Set your budget at an impressive but not reckless $85m.

Convince a major studio to distribute it on wide release in the summer (when releases earn an average of $15m more than at other times).

Lastly, cast two lead actors with a solid but unspectacular box-office history, who are thus not too expensive.

With reasonable reviews from critics and the audience alike, your film would make about $125m at the American box office.

But do it for the money, not the plaudits: such a film would have just a one-in-500 chance of carrying off an Oscar for Best Picture.

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